BBVA predicts tough times

If anyone thought that the adjustment of the real estate sector Verrucosus Spanish would be quick, was wrong. Así al menos lo estima el Servicio de Estudios del BBVA, que en su último informe sobre la situación inmobiliaria afirma que «el proceso de corrección está todavía en una etapa temprana, tanto en precios como en actividad». So at least the estimated Service Studies BBVA, which in its latest report on the state property states that "the correction process is still at an early stage, both in prices and in activity."

Jose Luis Escriva, chief economist of the group, explained that in the case of Spain, the adjustment "will be lasting and, although more intense in activity, prices are also moderate at around 20% over the last four years that the estimated bearish phase of the cycle with regard to housing.

So, for this year, BBVA anticipates that the cost of the buildings still rise almost 1%, namely 0.8%, while in 2009 predicts a reduction of 2.1%. Escrivá señaló que las caídas nominales serán pequeñas porque el ajuste mayor vendrá determinado por la inflación, de modo que la bajada real del precio para el próximo año sería del 4,9%, pues el IPC estimado es del 2,8%. Escriva stated that crashes will be nominal because the small adjustment will be determined more by inflation, so the real drop in the price for next year would be 4.9%, since the CPI is estimated at 2.8%.

As far as visas for sale, it is expected that this year will fall between 336,000 and 456,000, and will be less in 2009: between 270,000 and 385,000. Escrivá también apuntó que la aceleración de los planes de infraestructuras anunciados por el Gobierno tendrá un impacto positivo sobre el empleo en el sector, pero sobre todo a largo plazo, ya que como instrumento de estabilización económica su efecto es más reducido. Escriva also noted that the acceleration of infrastructure plans announced by the Government will have a positive impact on employment in the sector, but especially in the long term, because as an instrument of economic stabilization effect is smaller.